Optimistic Policy Outlook Ahead, Iron Ore Prices Hold Up Well [SMM Brief Review]

Today, iron ore futures held up well with a slightly weaker intraday trend. The most-traded contract I2601 closed at 808.5, up 0.37% from the previous trading day. Traders' willingness to sell was moderate; steel mills' wait-and-see sentiment intensified, and purchase willingness was moderate on Monday. Market transaction atmosphere was moderate. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for old PB fines were around 800 yuan/mt, up 0-5 yuan/mt from yesterday; new PB fines traded around 788-790 yuan/mt. In Tangshan, PB fines transaction prices were 805-810 yuan/mt, flat from last Friday.

Last week, SMM global iron ore shipments totaled 37.66 million mt, up 3.92 million mt WoW, an increase of 11.6%. Shipments from Australia and Brazil rebounded significantly; shipments from non-mainstream countries such as South Africa, India, and Peru declined. SMM China iron ore arrivals totaled 23.96 million mt, down 2.08 million mt WoW, a decrease of about 8%. Short-term supply pressure is relatively limited. This week marks the final stage of concentrated restocking by steel mills, and demand continues to support ore prices. Additionally, the market has strong expectations for subsequent policy releases, further consolidating the resilience of ore prices. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound with a firm bias in the short term.